Express monitoring

IconPublished 12.06.2024

The study of the regional climate and constant monitoring of its changes is one of the priorities of the national hydrometeorological service of Kazakhstan RSE "Kazhydromet". RSE "Kazhydromet" issues monthly bulletins that assess anomalies in the average monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation on the territory of Kazakhstan.

To prepare the Bulletin, we use data from observations on the meteorological monitoring network of RSE "Kazhydromet": series of average monthly air temperatures and monthly precipitation totals since 1941.

Anomalies of the average monthly surface air temperatures and monthly precipitation amounts are determined relative to the long-term average values (norms) calculated for the period 1991‑2020, recommended by the world meteorological organization as a baseline for monitoring the anomalies of the current climate. Air temperature anomalies are calculated as deviations of the observed value from the norm. Precipitation anomalies are represented as a percentage of the norm, that is, as a percentage of the observed precipitation to the corresponding norm value.

For the characterization of climate extremes there are maps of where each station displays a range of empirical probability of non-exceedance of the current value in the time series of the considered variable for the period from 1941-current year (empirical probability of non-exceedance is the percentage of time series values that are lower or equal to the current value). If the probability of not exceeding the current value of a variable falls in the extreme ranges (0-5% or 95-100%), then this value has not occurred more often than in 5% of cases since 1941. If the probability of not exceeding the current value of air temperature is in the range of 0-5%, this indicates that extremely low temperatures were observed in this place; if in the range of 95-100%, then, on the contrary, extremely high temperatures. If we consider the amount of precipitation, in the first case it indicates an extremely small amount, in the second-an extremely large amount.

The Department responsible for issuing the Bulletin is the climate research Department of the Research center

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