Kazhydromet RSE classifies Atyrau, Mangystau, Kyzylorda and Zhambyl regions as a low-risk area for spring flooding in 2026. According to the basic hydrological forecast, in these regions, the development of a flood situation is expected mainly within the long-term average values, while in some areas local flooding is not excluded with an unfavorable combination of hydrometeorological factors. Atyrau region Autumn soil moisture in most of the region was below normal (47-67%), with the exception of Kurmangazinsky district, where the indicators exceeded the norm. Compared to last year, precipitation in the autumn period was generally lower, except in the northwestern part of the region. The depth of soil freezing varies from 27 to 50 cm, which is 2-22 cm lower than last year's values. Snow accumulation in most of the territory is below normal, only in some areas of the western part of the region the indicators are above normal. According to the calculated data, the magnitude of the spring flood on the Emba and Sagiz rivers is expected to be lower than the average annual values. A low risk is predicted in Kyzylkoginsky, Makatsky, Indersky, Makhambetsky, Isataysky districts and in Atyrau city. In the Zhylyoy district, the risk level is estimated as average, taking into account the influence of hydrometeorological conditions in the neighboring Aktobe region. The passage of high water on the Kigach River in the Kurmangazinsky district will depend on the discharge modes of water from the Volgograd reservoir. Zhambyl region Autumn soil moisture in most of the territory is below normal. Soil freezing is observed only locally and does not exceed 12 cm, which is significantly lower than last year. Snow accumulation is unevenly distributed: in the southern and southwestern regions there is excess of the norm, in the northern and some western regions — below the norm. Based on a comprehensive analysis of hydrometeorological factors, Sarysu, Moyinkum, Talas, Bayzak, Shusky, Kordai districts and the T. Ryskulov district are classified as low-risk areas. In Zhualynsky, Zhambylsky and Merkensky districts the risk is estimated as average. In case of a sharp increase in temperatures and heavy rainfall in March, snowmelt floods may form along mountain rivers. Kyzylorda region Autumn precipitation in most of the territory was below normal, with the exception of certain northwestern regions. There is little or no soil freezing. At the same time, the amount of precipitation during the cold period in most areas exceeds the norm. As of the beginning of March, there are no ice phenomena at most of the hydraulic posts. The opening of the Syrdarya River near the city of Kazala is expected in the first half of March. Taking into account the hydrometeorological situation and the clearing of riverbeds from ice phenomena, the flood hazard level is estimated as low. Mangystau region Autumn soil moisture in most of the territory corresponded to or exceeded the norm, while precipitation was lower compared to last year. The depth of soil freezing is 31-45 cm and is generally lower than last year's figures. Snow accumulation is unevenly distributed. Since there are no surface watercourses with pronounced spring flooding in the region, the overall level of flood danger is minimal. At the same time, in some localities (Atameken village, Munaili district, Rakhat subdistrict, Zhanaozen, Beineu district), with intense snowmelt and heavy rains, local flooding associated with rising groundwater levels is possible. The probability of such phenomena is estimated as average.
