Kazhydromet presents to your attention the advisory weather forecast for Kazakhstan for the upcoming winter December 2025 – February 2026 and March 2026.
According to the preliminary forecast, the winter in most of the republic is expected to be moderately warm, with precipitation within the climatic norm. But in some periods, heavy precipitation with snowstorms, gusty winds, icy conditions, and fogs is possible.
During the winter period, the so-called "temperature swings" are assumed, that is, often thaws will be replaced by waves of cold.
In general, December is expected to be warm, with moderate precipitation.
For reference:
the monthly average air temperature in December is expected;
- above the norm by 1-2 ° in most of the territory of the republic,
- about the norm – in the southeastern half (in Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions and Zhetisu region, in the south of Karaganda region and Abai region, in the south-east of Kyzylorda region and Ulytau region).
Precipitation is forecast
to be around normal in most of the republic.;
less than normal – in most of the Kyzylorda region, in the south-east of Aktobe, in the south-west of Kostanay regions, in the west of Ulytau region.
Precipitation is expected mainly in the form of snow with blizzards, gale-force winds, ice and fog, with the release of southern cyclones, mixed precipitation in the form of rain and sleet is possible on some days.
In some periods with the influence of an anticyclone, precipitation is predicted to cease, that is, clear frosty days are not excluded.
The most intense cold wave in December is expected at the end of the first decade. In the north, east and center of the country, the air temperature may drop to 23-28 degrees Celsius at night, and to 13-18 degrees Celsius in the afternoon.
In the second and third decades, the temperature background at night will range from 15-20 to 5-10 frost, during the day from a slightly positive 3 frost - 2 heat to 5-10 frost, in the east - on some days the air temperature will drop at night to 25-35 frost, in the afternoon to 15-20 frost.
In the west and in the southern half of the country, an even higher temperature background is expected at the beginning of the month – 5-10 degrees Celsius in the afternoon, by the end of the first decade, a gradual decrease in air temperature is predicted at night to 12-17 frost, 3-8 frost in the afternoon. Then the air temperature is expected to fluctuate at night from 0-5 frost to 7-12 frost, during the day it is expected to be mostly in the range of 0-8 heat.
In January, the air temperature is expected to be:
- about the norm - in most of the country;
- below normal by 1 ° C - expected in the east of the republic.
(in the Abai and Zhetisu regions, in the East Kazakhstan region, in most of Almaty, in the east of Karaganda, Pavlodar regions).
Precipitation in January is expected
to be about normal in most of the republic;
more than normal in mountainous and foothill areas of the south and southeast of the republic.
(in mountainous and foothill areas of Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions, Zhetisu region and East Kazakhstan region);
February and March 2026 are expected to be warm, with moderate precipitation, but more may fall in March in the mountainous and foothill regions of the south and southeast of the republic.
(in mountainous and foothill areas of East Kazakhstan, Turkestan, Zhambyl, Almaty regions and Zhetisu region).
In conclusion, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that due to heavy precipitation and frequent changes in thaws and cold weather returns, an ice crust will form in the soil and snow cover.
And all this may negatively affect the passage of the flood period in 2026.
