Autumn is one of the most changeable seasons with cold snaps, frequent precipitation, frosts and fogs.
According to the seasonal advisory forecast, in September, the average monthly air temperature in most of Kazakhstan is expected to be around normal, in the western regions of the republic and in some areas of the north-west of the country – above normal by 1 °, and in the north-east, east and south-east of the country – below normal by 1° (norm: +10+16°C in most of the Republic of Kazakhstan, +17+21°C in the southern half of the country, +4+9°C - in the mountainous regions of the south-east and east of the republic).
In October, the probability of frost increases, the average monthly air temperature is predicted to be around normal in most of the republic, above normal by 1° is expected in the west, south, and southeast of the country (norm: +3+9°C in most of the Republic of Kazakhstan, +10+14°C – in the south, southwest of the country, -1+2 °C - in the mountainous regions of the southeast and east of the republic).
In November, in most of the republic, the air temperature is forecast to be 1-2 degrees above normal, only in the far south and south-east of the country - about normal (norm: -7+1°C in most of the Republic of Kazakhstan, +2+7°C – in the south of the country).
In autumn, precipitation is generally predicted to be mostly around long-term values, but its distribution is expected to be uneven in the context of regions.:
- in September, precipitation is forecast to be about normal in most of the republic, less than normal in Mangystau, Ulytau region, Kyzylorda region, most of Turkestan, in the extreme south of Aktobe, Kostanay regions, in the west of Karaganda, in the north-west of Zhambyl regions (norm: 1-24 mm in most of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 25-42 mm mm in some areas of the west, north, east and south-east of the country, 50-56 mm in the mountainous regions of the east of the republic);
- in October, precipitation in most regions is expected to be close to the long–term norm, more than normal in the north-western part, in mountainous and foothill areas of the south, south-east and east of the Republic (norm: 6-24 mm in most of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 25-49 mm in most of the north, east, south-east of the country, in some areas of the west, center, and south of the republic, 50-64 mm in mountainous areas of the south, southeast, and east of the republic);
- in November, precipitation is expected to be about normal in most of the country, less than normal in most of the south–west, center, east, south of the country, in the north of Almaty region and Zhetisu region (norm: 9-24 mm in most of the country, 50-82 mm in some areas of the south, south-east of the Republic of Kazakhstan).
For reference: The seasonal weather forecast is issued six times a year: 1 forecast for the warm half-year, 1 forecast for the cold half-year, which are updated by 4 quarterly forecasts for winter, spring, summer and autumn in 17 regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
> February 15th for spring (March-May);
> March 15th for the warm period (April-October);
> May 15th for summer (June-August);
> August 15th for autumn (September-November);
> October 15th for the cold period (November-March);
> November 15th for winter (December-February).
A seasonal weather forecast is a description of the averaged meteorological parameters for air temperature and precipitation, expressed as a deviation (anomaly) from the climatic norms for the season in question. It should be used as an advisory, which is updated by forecasts for shorter periods (quarterly seasonal forecast, month, decade, week, and day).
